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Need for a 'viral' marketing campaign to introduce Linux (especially Ubuntu) but it doesn't matter which to Windows sufferers

Charles Norrie [cbnorrie at hotmail.com]


Mon, 2 Feb 2009 07:54:56 +0000

I am concerned that despite the Conficker affair, the message about using Ubuntu isn't getting through especially to industry commentators. So I wrote to Mark Shuttleworth.

Dear Mark Shuttleworth,

Marketing Ubuntu

I am still delighted with Ubuntu, and believe me after using computers for 40 years, it's quite the best OS/package I've ever come across.

But the message isn't getting out there. I became aware how bad it was when I did a single word Google News search for 'Conficker'.

You and I know that if only we could get people to put Linux on their pcs their malware problems would vanish. But that message is not getting through.

Here are the results:

   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+
   | Search term (Google)               | Number of hits | Number of hits   |
   |                                    | (news)         | (blogs)          |
   |------------------------------------+----------------+------------------|
   | Conficker                          | 2829   | %     | 145851   | %     |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker security patches         | 71     | 2.51  | 30480    | 20.9  |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker Up to date               | 78     | 2.76  | 11406    | 7.82  |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker Remove                   | 73     | 2.58  | 22324    | 15.31 |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker Clean                    | 53     | 1.87  | 7271     | 4.99  |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker Autorun                  | 240    | 8.48  | 5574     | 3.82  |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker Linux                    | 17     | 0.60  | 71388    | 48.95 |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker Ubuntu                   | 2      | 0.07  | 14151    | 9.70  |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Conficker Wine                     | 2      | 0.07  | 2772     | 1.90  |
   |------------------------------------------------------------------------|
   | Importance of Ubuntu to Linux in News and Blogs                        |
   |------------------------------------------------------------------------|
   | Linux                              | 19386  | 12.49 | 15595109 | 12.89 |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | Ubuntu                             | 2421   |       | 2009614  |       |
   |------------------------------------+--------+-------+----------+-------|
   | (Linux Conficker)/(Ubuntu          |        | 11.76 |          | 12.88 |
   | Conficker)                         |        |       |          |       |
   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Survey: about 9.00 GMT 37 January 2009

The standard article written on Conficker simply reports in bad news glee the spread of the epidemic. A small number 70-80 reports seem to tell you what to do in way of Microsoft repairs, though much of this is written from an arrogant point of view which says 'serve your right if you haven't patched'. The higher figure for Autorun (the Autorun turn-off question) probably reflects the dispute between Microsoft and US CERT about what to do.

Linux hardly gets a look in, and some of those reports probably are falsely asserting that Linux machines are vulnerable too.

If Linux is mentioned, it is only to assert that 'if you are lucky enough' to have a Linux machine you won't get hit.

Disappointingly there are virtually no references to Conficker and Ubuntu and as few to WINE.

Though I have tried to infect my machine by browsing dubious websites under WINE and Klamav has reported an infection, so I have disabled WINE for good.

That's in News.

Blogs are different. Not only are there 5 times as many entries in blogs as in news, (although the statistics are not quite as comparable as each blog entry is not counted separately), but blogs seem to mention security patches and the like more often than news articles. The Autorun question is relatively less important.

Best of all, the ratio of blogs mentioning Linux (in relation to conficker) to news mentioning Linux is vastly different. Half the blogs do, while 0.6% of the news. Wine is more prominent, too, in blogs.

In relation to Linux, Ubuntu has about 12% hits in both News and Blogs.

The one major conclusion to this study is that 'the professionals' , the people who cover software as news, are not treating Linux and in our case Ubuntu sufficiently, or indeed at all.

There are several reasons for this. Virtually all articles about Conficker are identical and I think reflect the same small number of PR outlets, Microsoft and the security industry being the worst source.

Industry players in the Linux world have got to get together and get the message out. But that's not helpful to someone like me who hopes to see Linux take over the world, and especially Ubuntu, and would like to help that take-over happen.

I think Ubuntu users who blog have got to try to become cleverer in how they interact with the internet.

"Yah! Boo! Sucks! To your Windows virus, I'm safe behind Ubuntu," is unfortunately too often the attitude of too many Ubuntophiles. We need to get the large number of people contributing to blogs to contribute in more structured, helpful and effective ways.

It's quite interesting that this is often only a matter of style. Contributors to Linux forums and Ubuntu's for the very great part make well written and above all helpful remarks, made politely and are very effective removing to the community much of the support work that either couldn't or wouldn't be paid for.

But how to do it? I think we need to look for new techniques.

Some ideas:

The Ubuntu community should try and set some penetration targets. As a community it's quite good at setting targets and meeting them on a regular basis. Why not set as an initial target to get the same proportion of pcs using Ubuntu as Firefox in used.

If I read the statistics correctly Firefox has achieved a 44% pentration whereas the several versions of Iexplore have 45%. This is much greater than the penetration of Linux or Windows into the pc market.

If we could do that most of the battle would be won. Hardware manufacturers would perforce have to make their products Linux-operable.

From the 'industry' point of view, I think it means some fairly sensible marketing, if only driving press releases to that small number of industry commentators.

But the wider community can help. I suggest Ubuntu tries to set up a user driven viral marketing initiative, such as is used to promote films. Members of the initiative would be asked to place pro-Ubuntu statements in response to stories that either denigrate or more often simply ignore Linux, especially Ubuntu.

A website containing skeleton arguments as to why one should use Ubuntu should be set up, with arguments against such things as 'nobody uses Ubuntu', 'it'll get malware when its popular', and a 100 other myths. The object would be to make a clear and well argued case for using Ubuntu, showing how easy it is to install and use and how the software offerings are much greater than for Windows. Much must be made of is resistance to malware, and how is is quietly updated on a daily basis.

People on the whole should be invited to take part in this initiative as they will have to learn the basic rules of marketing, even if virally.

Home users probably do not fear the patent risk, but it's there in some manager's minds.

Perhaps the Linux suppliers should consider selling insurance against being sued for using the OS. Insurance should be cheap to get as the matter has essentially been declared dead by the Courts.

With these few thoughts, I'll sign off, but I hope I've given Canonical something to think about.

Yours sincerely

Charles Norrie

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Ben Okopnik [ben at linuxgazette.net]


Mon, 2 Feb 2009 09:32:35 -0500

On Mon, Feb 02, 2009 at 07:54:56AM +0000, Charles Norrie wrote:

>    I am concerned that despite the Conficker affair, the message about using
>    Ubuntu isn't getting through especially to industry commentators.

Frankly, there's nothing unusual about Conficker. Wind0ws has a long, uninterrupted history of being vulnerable to exploits; Micr0s0ft's approach has always been reactive (unavoidable, given their OS design) - and the result of that is inevitable.

>    The Ubuntu community should try and set some penetration targets. As a
>    community it's quite good at setting targets and meeting them on a regular
>    basis. Why not set as an initial target to get the same proportion of pcs
>    using Ubuntu as Firefox in used.

Whoops - you just slipped yourself a mickey (I'm assuming your good faith and not saying that you tried to slip one to anybody else.) "Setting targets" is all well and good when it's a software project - i.e., all the production factors are controllable once you have the required brainshare. It is not all well and good when you're talking about a marketing effort - a completely different situation, unrelated in fact despite your identical description of it - because the "production" factors are not nearly as controllable and require a completely different approach.

>    If we could do that most of the battle would be won.

[smile] "Except for that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

>    But the wider community can help. I suggest Ubuntu tries to set up a user
>    driven viral marketing initiative, such as is used to promote films.

But you see, we don't need any "viral" marketing, or any other cutesy current buzzwords. The business world is proving to be rational in this particular area, and Linux usage is booming. Consider the penetration of Linux from the other end: seventeen years ago, it was nothing more than a lone student's project. Five years after that, most people in the computer industry knew about it; five years after that, many businesses and a large number of individuals were running it. Today, it's pretty much an article of faith in computing that Linux servers, firewalls, etc. are the bulletproof solution; in fact, the default pattern for network configuration today is "Linux on the outside, Wind0ws on the inside" (I often hear this from people who administer Micr0s0ft systems for a living.)

Linux is expanding. Ubuntu, from my perspective, is one of the best of the breed because they're sticking like glue to many of the original values that made Open Source what it is. And while it's good to consider the process and think about improving it, I doubt that we need any sort of a "magic bullet" to "cure the problems" of Linux. That's not where we are today; in fact, that's not a place where Linux has ever been.

>    Yours sincerely
> 
>    Charles Norrie
> 
>      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
>    Share your photos with Windows Live Photos * Free Find out more!

You've got to admit... that last line is pretty amusing, given the subject and the thrust of your email. :)

-- 
* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * http://LinuxGazette.NET *


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Kat Tanaka Okopnik [kat at linuxgazette.net]


Mon, 2 Feb 2009 08:45:21 -0800

On Mon, Feb 02, 2009 at 07:54:56AM +0000, Charles Norrie wrote:

>    I am concerned that despite the Conficker affair, the message about using
>    Ubuntu isn't getting through especially to industry commentators. 

I think you're barking up the wrong tree, Charles. Mainly because you're starting from the wrong end of the problem.

As far as I can deduce - Most of us who are using Ubuntu are doing so for one of two reasons: a) we're geeky types who poke at computers, and either came at it from another distro, or from a definite choice about OS, or b) we have some personal contact with a geeky type who suggested that we try Ubuntu, and then was there to handhold (or simply take over) while we converted. Very, very few people are choosing on their own to convert based on available information.

Why?

The average computer user out there has no inclination to choose an OS. As far as they're concerned, hardware and operating systems are still in lockstep the way it was back when - a Commodore runs Commodore stuff, an Apple runs Apple stuff, PCs run DOS/Wind0ws stuff. It's like knowing that their car runs on gas or diesel; why would they look for alternate fuels? The computer is a magic box that does stuff, in the same way that their car is a magic box that does stuff with the right input. The average driver has very little idea of how their engine works, but they don't need it in order to get from A to B, which is all they want it to do. It takes a car geek to want to tweak performance, and consider whether to put in another engine. If the average driver's car has a completely non-functional engine, he's likely to take it to a mechanic who'll replace it with something just like the factory original, or just buy another car. He's not likely to say, "oh, I should put a different engine in my car!" He didn't choose the engine in the first place, it's not going to occur to him to choose now. And besides which, he's used to having a warranty, and even though it's already expired, he gains a lot of comfort from being part of the system.

But you say, "what about Firefox?" More like getting someone to change the brand of gas they use. It's a small change, practically invisible. Download the new app, stop using the old one. Go to gas station C instead of D. Easy. Not like changing an engine.

So. Joe AverageComputerUser isn't looking at news reports to learn about a better OS. Any news report suggesting that is likely to get glossed over. Doing those news reports better won't do a darned thing to increase Ubuntu use on individual desktops.

What will?

Changing OSes is work. The best way to make this happen is by making the change as easy as possible. Bonus points for making it fun. Going back to Firefox as a comparison - one of their most successful actions was turning the new Firefox download into a global attempt at record-setting. How about a "Global Switch to Ubuntu Day" ? It needs a catchier name, but if we organized all those InstallFests to happen on one day, and made it the sort of half-crazy stunt that newswires love to report, the sort of thing that becomes morning chatshow fodder, then we have a lot of eyes and ears. Let's aim for a world record of most "simultaneous" conversions to Ubuntu.

Honestly, I don't think it's that simple - people are going to miss their old software, because most of them are rote users who have a hard time switching from one version to another, nevermind a completely different tool. I think we might do better with Global DualBoot day, so people can get training wheels instead of being dumped into the deep end of the swimming pool.

Now, this is all hand-wave-y. There's a whole lot more to work out in order to make something like this successful. But let's see if this is worth working on. I think that starting from a better understanding of Joe AverageComputerUser's stumbling block will get us to a more effective solution than what we've had up to now.

-- 
Kat Tanaka Okopnik
Linux Gazette Mailbag Editor
kat@linuxgazette.net


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